DHL’s Global Trade Barometer shows that that global trade is slowing, though still in growth.
The DHL report looked at international and containerised ocean trade and this, according to a statement from DHL, “indicates that the development of the previous quarters will continue: Indices for all seven countries that constitute the GTB index are above 50 points, which corresponds to a positive growth forecast according to the underlying methodology. “
Brexit has badly impacted the UK with its GTB falling by four points and its growth forecast is set to fall even more. The DHL statement continued, “This makes it the index country with the weakest growth forecast: With 53 points, the UK is only slightly above the 50-point mark, which indicates stagnation in trade growth.”
Overall growth however is slowing according to the index. The statement continued, “This deceleration will be particularly strong in Asia (except for China): Index values for India, Japan and South Korea have dropped by eight, six and five points respectively compared to the previous release of the GTB in September. With an overall index of 75 points, India, however, continues to be the country with the strongest trade growth forecast.”
“The DHL Global Trade Barometer clearly shows that the state of global trade remains solid. Both, air and ocean trade, continue to grow around the world. However, given the smoldering trade conflicts, especially between the US and China, and economists’ expectations that the global economy could cool down, it is not entirely surprising that trade momentum has weakened slightly”, said Tim Scharwath, CEO of DHL Global Forwarding, Freight.
The DHL statement continued, “Trade growth in the US (61 points) and China (58 points) remains solid. Both countries’ momentum of growth is slowing only moderately by two and one points, respectively – even though both countries would have much to lose if their trade conflict escalated.”