Eastern Europe Parcels Market Insight Report 2021
Summary
The combined value of parcels markets across 13 Eastern European countries included in this study was just over €6bn in 2020, having grown at 9% per year since 2015 supported by:
– Strong economic performance across the region
– Increases in home shopping from relatively low levels.
Poland is the largest market in the region, in line with having the largest population, largest economy and highest level of online retail.
GDP per head is lower across the region than in Western Europe and there is considerable variation within the region. The average for Eastern Europe is €8.4k vs €31k for Western Europe. Slovenia is highest, at €19k, over ten times the level in Ukraine: €1.8k
Online retail sales are also much lower than in Western Europe, again with significant variation
– Total online retail sales in Eastern Europe reached €29bn in 2020, having grown at 20% per year since 2015 with double-digit growth across the whole of Eastern Europe.
– The average across the countries in this report was €184 per head in 2020. This compares with an average of €1,193 per head for the largest six Western European markets.
– The highest level in the region was in Poland, where average spend per head was approximately €386 in 2020. Ukraine was lowest at just €17.
– Half of all internet retail sales in Eastern Europe is within Poland (51%). Other larger internet retail markets are Czech Republic, Hungary and Romania
2020 has been a year of major disruption, with economic growth severely impacted across virtually all of the region while online retail has increased, albeit from a low base.
While the picture varies from country to country, the relatively low level of online retail means that, in most markets, there has not been a similar jump in market size to that seen in most western markets.
We expect market growth to continue, given expectations of ongoing economic growth and increased internet retailing.
Competitive landscape
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Most Eastern European parcels markets are much more fragmented than in Western Europe.
DPD and GLS have domestic delivery operations across almost all countries in the region. The integrators are also present but, in most countries, they appear to focus on international express only.
In most countries, postal operators are not as prominent as in the main western European markets.
Most carriers focus on the B2B segment so saw their revenues impacted by the reduction in economic activity during lockdown periods while those with extensive B2C presence – mainly postal operators – saw faster growth as online retail grew.
What does the report cover?
Eastern European Parcels Market Insight Report 2021 sets out the market structure, size, growth, key trends and competitive landscape of the parcels market in this part of Europe.
The report covers 13 countries: Poland, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Ukraine, Bulgaria, Croatia, and Belarus.
The market is served by a combination of integrators (UPS, FedEx and DHL), national postal operators and other privately owned carriers. The report reviews the performance of the leading carriers and evaluates their prospects.
Our definition of the parcels market includes domestic, intra-European and international parcels. It also includes business-to-business, business-to- consumer and consumer consigned parcels.
Parcel weight definitions vary, between operators and countries, but most describe parcels up to various weights approaching 40 kg.
All service levels are included (time definite and deferred).
Adjacent services, such as mail, pallet distribution, groupage, freight forwarding, same day delivery, two-man delivery, fulfilment and contract logistics are excluded.
The report provides historical and forecast market sizes covering the period from 2015-2025.
Market sizes are presented in value terms.
Market values are presented on a constant currency basis using average exchange rates for 2021 YTD unless otherwise stated.
The report draws on:
– Apex Insight’s work on the parcels markets in several key countries and regions
– Our consulting work in the industry which has included advising on market and strategic issues and the attractiveness of parcel company acquisitions
Clients purchasing it are welcome to have an expert call with our analysts to discuss its findings and any questions that they may have on it or the market in general.
What are the sources and methodology?
The main sources for the report are
– Extensive desk research on the parcels market and its operators covering carrier annual reports and financial statements, carrier websites, trade press and other sources
– Published information on key market drivers such as economic data and estimates of home shopping levels and practices
– Interviews with senior-level contacts in the market
The key input to our market size estimates is a bottom-up analysis of the revenues of the parcel companies we have identified as operating in each of the main countries covered.
Adjustments have been made to compensate for missing data and to reflect the extent to which these companies are involved in other logistics activities in addition to parcels.
Our market model produces historical and forecast growth estimates covering the period from 2015-2025, based on trends in company revenue and drivers such as economic performance and levels and patterns of home shopping.
Who is it useful for?
The report is intended for:
– Owners and operators of parcel networks
– Customers of those networks, in particular, retailers who sell via the internet
– Investors in these businesses
– Market regulators and policymakers
– Banks, analysts, consultants and other parties with interests in the sector
Who was it written by?
The report was written by Frank Proud and Paul Chapman
Frank founded Apex Insight in 2012 and set up our Parcels and Delivery practice
His background is strategy consulting, with two firms, Bridgewater and Burlington, which were originally founded by ex-Bain teams. He has advised many clients across the logistics industry, from start-ups to global leaders.
Subsequently, he was a senior member of the Transaction Support team at EY, advising private equity firms and corporate acquirers on commercial due diligence and other acquisition-related issues.
He leads Apex Insight’s consulting work for investors and clients in the logistics industry.
He has an MA in Economics from Cambridge University.
Paul has extensive experience across a wide range of parcels, delivery and logistics markets
As well as having a leading role in Apex Insight’s research, he has worked on consulting assignments for clients and investors in the sector.
His previous experience includes being Logistics Research Manager at Datamonitor, co-founder of Analytiqa and a marketing / strategy role at Christian Salvesen.
He has a BA in Modern Languages with Business Studies from Swansea University
Contents
About this report 2
Summary 5
About Apex Insight
Eastern European Parcels Market Background 16
Market definition 16
Characteristics of the markets 17
Eastern European parcels markets 17
Comparison vs. Western Europe 18
The parcels industry 19
Business vs. consumer delivery 19
Other segmentations of the market 20
Premium / economy 20
International / domestic 20
Market Size and Growth 21
Parcels market value 21
Parcels market value by segment 21
Parcels market value by country, 2020 22
GDP Growth 23
Impact of online retail market growth on parcels markets 24
Online retail market 24
Online retail market by country 24
Forecasts 25
Economic growth forecasts 25
Internet retail forecasts 26
Parcels market forecasts 26
Poland 27
Market size and growth 27
Parcels market size 27
GDP growth 28
Internet retail sales and growth 29
Poland – Competitor Analysis 29
Leading parcel delivery companies by revenue 29
DPD Polska Sp. z.o.o. 30
DHL Express (Poland) Sp z.o.o 31
UPS Polska Sp z.o.o 32
Poczta Polska S.A. 32
FedEx 32
General Logistics Systems Poland Sp z.o.o 33
Poland - Parcels market forecast 33
GDP forecast 33
Internet retail forecasts 34
Parcels market forecast 34
Romania 36
Market size and growth 36
Parcels market size 36
GDP growth 37
Internet retail sales and growth 37
Romania – Competitor Analysis 38
Leading parcel delivery companies by revenue 38
FAN Courier 38
Cargus 38
FedEx Express Romania 38
Romania Post (Posta Romana) 39
DHL International Romania SRL 39
DPD Romania 39
Sameday 39
UPS Romania 40
Nemo Express 40
Romania parcels market forecast 40
GDP forecast 40
Internet retail forecast 41
Parcels market forecast 41
Czech Republic 43
Market size and growth 43
Parcels market size 43
GDP growth 44
Internet retail sales and growth 44
Czech Republic – Competitor Analysis 45
Leading parcel delivery companies by revenue 45
Czech Post 45
PPL 45
DPD Czech Republic 45
United Parcel Service Czech Republic s.r.o. 46
Zasilkovna (Packeta Group) 46
GLS Czech Republic 46
We Do 46
Messenger 46
Czech Republic - Parcels market forecast 47
GDP forecast 47
Internet retail forecast 47
Parcels market forecast 48
Hungary 49
Market size and growth 49
Parcels market size 49
GDP growth 50
Internet retail sales and growth 50
Hungary – Competitor Analysis 51
Leading parcel delivery companies by revenue 51
GLS Hungary Kft 51
Hungary Post 51
UPS Magyarország Kft. 51
DHL Express Magyarország Kft 52
DPD Hungary 52
Express One Hungary Kft 52
Hungary - Parcels market forecast 52
GDP forecast 52
Internet retail forecast 53
Parcels market forecast 53
Bulgaria 54
Market size and growth 54
Parcels market size 54
GDP growth 55
Internet retail sales and growth 56
Bulgaria – Competitor Analysis 56
Leading parcel delivery companies by revenue 56
Econt Express 57
Speedy 57
Bulgaria Post 57
DHL Express Bulgaria 57
M&BM Express 57
In Time 57
Bulgaria - Parcels market forecast 57
GDP forecast 58
Internet retail forecast 58
Bulgaria parcels market forecast 59
Slovakia 60
Market size and growth 60
Parcels market size 60
GDP growth 61
Internet retail sales and growth 61
Slovakia – Competitor Analysis 62
Leading parcel delivery companies by revenue 62
DHL 62
FedEx / TNT 62
Slovak Parcel Service 62
Slovak Post 62
DPD 62
InTime, s.r.o. 63
Remax Courier Service, s.r.o. 63
Slovakia - Parcels market forecast 63
GDP forecast 63
Internet retail forecast 64
Parcels market forecast 64
Ukraine 65
Market size and growth 65
Parcels market size 65
GDP growth 66
Internet retail sales and growth 67
Ukraine – Competitor Analysis 67
Leading parcel delivery companies 67
Nova Poshta 67
Ukraine Post (Ukrposhta) 67
Ukraine - Parcels market forecast 68
GDP forecast 68
Internet retail forecast 68
Parcels market forecast 69
Belarus 70
Market size and growth 70
Parcels market size 70
GDP growth 71
Internet retail sales and growth 71
Belarus – Competitor Analysis 72
Leading parcel delivery companies 72
Estonia 73
Market size and growth 73
Parcels market size 73
GDP growth 74
Internet retail sales and growth 74
Estonia – Leading parcel delivery companies 75
Leading parcel delivery companies 75
Lithuania 76
Market size and growth 76
Parcels market size 76
GDP growth 77
Internet retail sales and growth 77
Lithuania – Competitor Analysis 78
Leading parcel delivery companies 78
Croatia 79
Market size and growth 79
Parcels market size 79
GDP growth 80
Internet retail sales and growth 81
Croatia – Competitor Analysis 81
Leading parcel delivery companies 81
Slovenia 82
Market size and growth 82
Parcels market size 82
GDP growth 83
Internet retail sales and growth 83
Slovenia – Competitor Analysis 83
Leading parcel delivery companies 84
Latvia 85
Market size and growth 85
Parcels market size 85
GDP growth 86
Internet retail sales and growth 86
Latvia – Competitor Analysis 87
Leading parcel delivery companies 87
Appendix 88
Notes to be read in conjunction with this report 88
List of charts and tables
InPost lockers in Poland 2
Geis depot in Czech Republic 3
GDP per head, Western Europe vs. Eastern Europe, 2020 5
Speedy, the Bulgarian carrier acquired by DPD in May 2021 6
Countries covered in the report 16
GDP per head, Western Europe vs. Eastern Europe, 2020 18
Online retail sales per head, Western Europe vs. Eastern Europe, 2020 18
Eastern Europe parcels market value, 2015-2020 / €m 21
Eastern Europe parcels market value by segment, 2015-2020 / €m 21
Eastern Europe parcels market value by country, 2015-2020 / €m 22
Eastern Europe GDP growth, CAGR 2015-2020 % 23
Eastern Europe GDP growth by country, 2020 23
Internet retail sales in Eastern Europe, 2015-2020 24
Internet retail sales in Eastern Europe by country, 2015-2020 €m 24
Eastern Europe GDP Growth Forecast, 2015-2025 25
Eastern Europe GDP growth forecast by country, 2015-20 & 2020-25, CAGR % 25
Internet retail spend forecast by country €m, 2015-25 26
Eastern Europe parcels market value forecast, 2015-2025 / €m 26
Eastern Europe parcels market value forecast, CAGR growth 2015-20 & 2020-25 % 27
Poland parcels market value 2015-2020 / €m 27
Poland parcels market value by segment 2015-2020 / €m 28
Poland GDP growth: 2015-20 / annual % change 28
Poland internet retail sales: 2015-20 / €m 29
Poland parcels market competitor analysis €m, 2019 30
DPD Polska financials, 2013-19 €m 30
DHL Express (Poland) financials, 2010-18 €m 31
UPS Polska financials, 2010-18 €m 32
General Logistics Systems Poland financials, 2010-2018 / €m 33
Forecast Poland GDP growth: 2015-25 / annual % change 33
Forecast Poland internet retail sales and growth: 2015-25 / €m 34
Forecast Poland parcels market size, €m, 2015-2025 34
Forecast Poland parcels market size by segment, €m, 2015-2025 35
Romania parcels market value 2015-2020 / €m 36
Romania parcels market value by segment 2015-2020 / €m 36
Romania GDP growth: 2015-20 / annual % change 37
Romania internet retail sales, 2015-20 €m 37
Leading parcel delivery companies in Romania, revenue (€m), 2019 38
Forecast Romania GDP growth: 2015-25 / annual % change 40
Forecast Romania internet retail sales and growth: 2015-25 / €m 41
Forecast Romania parcels market size, €m, 2015-2025 41
Forecast Romania parcels market size by segment, €m, 2015-2025 42
Czech Republic parcels market value 2015-2020 / €m 43
Czech Republic parcels market value by segment 2015-2020 / €m 43
Czech Republic GDP growth: 2015-20 / annual % change 44
Czech Republic internet retail sales, 2015-20 €m 44
Czech Republic parcels market competitor analysis 2019 / €m 45
Forecast Czech Republic GDP growth: 2015-25 / annual % change 47
Forecast Czech Republic internet retail sales and growth: 2015-25 / €m 47
Forecast Czech Republic parcels market size, €m, 2015-2025 48
Forecast Czech Republic parcels market size by segment, €m, 2015-2025 48
Hungary parcels market value 2015-2020 / €m 49
Hungary parcels market value by segment 2015-2020 / €m 49
Hungary GDP growth: 2015-20 / annual % change 50
Hungary internet retail sales and growth, 2015-20 €m 50
Hungary parcels market competitor analysis 2019 / €m 51
Forecast Hungary GDP growth: 2015-25 / annual % change 52
Forecast Hungary internet retail sales and growth: 2015-25 / €m 53
Forecast Hungary parcels market size, €m, 2015-2025 53
Forecast Hungary parcels market size by segment, €m, 2015-2025 54
Bulgaria parcels market value 2015-2020 / €m 54
Bulgaria parcels market value by segment 2015-2020 / €m 55
Bulgaria GDP growth: 2015-20 / annual % change 55
Bulgaria internet retail sales, 2015-20 €m 56
Bulgaria parcels market competitor analysis 2018 / €m 56
Forecast Bulgaria GDP growth: 2015-25 / annual % change 58
Forecast Bulgaria internet retail sales and growth: 2015-25 / €m 58
Forecast Bulgaria parcels market size, €m, 2015-2025 59
Forecast Bulgaria parcels market size by segment, €m, 2015-2025 59
Slovakia parcels market value 2015-2020 / €m 60
Slovakia parcels market value by segment 2015-2020 / €m 60
Slovakia GDP growth: 2015-20 / annual % change 61
Slovakia internet retail sales, 2015-20 €m 61
Slovakia parcels market competitor analysis 2019 / €m 62
Forecast Slovakia GDP growth: 2015-25 / annual % change 63
Forecast Slovakia internet retail sales and growth: 2015-25 / €m 64
Forecast Slovakia parcels market size, €m, 2015-2025 64
Forecast Slovakia parcels market size by segment, €m, 2015-2025 65
Ukraine parcels market value 2015-2020 / €m 65
Ukraine parcels market value by segment 2015-2020 / €m 66
Ukraine GDP growth: 2015-20 / annual % change 66
Ukraine internet retail sales, 2015-20 €m 67
Forecast Ukraine GDP growth: 2015-25 / annual % change 68
Forecast Ukraine internet retail sales and growth: 2015-25 / €m 68
Forecast Ukraine parcels market size, €m, 2015-2025 69
Forecast Ukraine parcels market size by segment, €m, 2015-2025 69
Forecast Belarus parcels market size, €m, 2015-2025 70
Forecast Belarus parcels market size by segment, €m, 2015-2025 70
Forecast Belarus GDP growth: 2015-25 / annual % change 71
Forecast Belarus internet retail sales and growth: 2015-25 / €m 71
Forecast Estonia parcels market size, €m, 2015-2025 73
Forecast Estonia parcels market size by segment, €m, 2015-2025 73
Forecast Estonia GDP growth: 2015-25 / annual % change 74
Forecast Estonia internet retail sales and growth: 2015-25 / €m 74
Forecast Lithuania parcels market size, €m, 2015-2025 76
Forecast Lithuania parcels market size by segment, €m, 2015-2025 76
Forecast Lithuania GDP growth: 2015-25 / annual % change 77
Forecast Lithuania internet retail sales and growth: 2015-25 / €m 77
Forecast Croatia parcels market size, €m, 2015-2025 79
Forecast Croatia parcels market size by segment, €m, 2015-2025 80
Forecast Croatia GDP growth: 2015-25 / annual % change 80
Forecast Croatia internet retail sales and growth: 2015-25 / €m 81
Forecast Slovenia parcels market size, €m, 2015-2025 82
Forecast Slovenia parcels market size by segment, €m, 2015-2025 82
Forecast Slovenia GDP growth: 2015-25 / annual % change 83
Forecast Slovenia internet retail sales and growth: 2015-25 / €m 83
Forecast Latvia parcels market size, €m, 2015-2025 85
Forecast Latvia parcels market size by segment, €m, 2015-2025 85
Forecast Latvia GDP growth: 2015-25 / annual % change 86
Forecast Latvia internet retail sales and growth: 2015-25 / €m 86
