European Parcels Market Insight Report 2021

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Published: November 2021
Pages: 184
Format: PDF + expert call

 

 

 

 

 

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European Parcels Market Insight Report 2021

Summary

The European parcels market exceeded €80bn in 2020, having grown briskly in recent years as economic performance across the continent has improved and growth of home shopping has continued. All of the leading countries have seen grown at over 5% CAGR.
 
Total internet retail sales in Europe reached €525bn in 2020, having grown at 17.6% per year since 2015 with double-digit growth across Europe. Growth from 2019 was €100m.
– The highest level of internet retail is in the UK, where average spend per head was approximately €2,600 in 2020.
– France and Germany are also large markets: combined they are similar in size to the UK and the three countries represent two thirds of the European total.
 
However, 2020 was a year of major disruption, with economic growth severely impacted across Europe while online retail has increased significantly, especially during lockdown periods.
 
The impact on the parcels market has not been straightforward.
– As the chart with data from DP-DHL Parcel Germany shows, carrier performance has varied significantly from quarter to quarter.
– Carriers with high levels of exposure to the B2B segment have seen their revenues fall while those with extensive B2C presence – in particular postal operators – have seen big increases.
 

DP DHL quarterly performance
 

We believe that the net impact is that the market across Europe has grown at a faster rate than would have otherwise have been the case. However the picture varies from country to country, with some seeing a big jump in market size in 2020 and others seeing a far more gradual progression.

 

Market trends

The parcels market is an area of ongoing development and innovation.
 
Relevant retail industry trends affecting the market include the increasingly active role played by consumer brands in selling direct and the growth of the subscription box model.
 
Carriers are investing in improving their information systems, both to provide better information on delivery to end customers and to improve their operational effectiveness. The last mile is a particular focus for process and technology innovations.
– With increased volume of deliveries putting pressure on last mile operations, Out of Home delivery is a more pressing priority and carriers continue to increase their use of lockers and parcel shops
 
Amazon Locker in a French railway station
 

– In the last year, many carriers have deployed cargo bikes, often using smaller or even mobile depots as a base.
– Adoption of electric vans is accelerating. While they reduce emissions in urban areas they still lead to brake and tyre pollution and cause congestion.
 
Leading online retailers, led by large marketplaces such as Amazon, Zalando, Zara and Argos, are increasingly getting involved in delivery, reflecting the strategic importance of it to their business models. Their large volumes give them significant market power and volumes to support their own operations.
 
Investment in upgrading operations and incorporating new technology continues to increase.
Several carriers have announced new hubs, generally with higher capacity than existing facilities.
New technologies being deployed include robots for sortation – which have so far been more widely used in Asia and North America than in Europe.
 
The traditional hub and spoke model remains very important, but some carriers and new entrants to the market are exploring both variations on, and alternatives to, it.
 
Same day deliveries are an area of innovation and investment. A series of on-demand providers such as Glovo, Paack and Stuart offering immediate delivery for a premium, and routed services, such as Poste Italiane via its Milkman acquisition, providing scheduled delivery. However, volumes remain very small relative to those of mainstream carriers and several high profile operators have withdrawn from the market.
 
Postal operators are becoming more focused on parcels as their mail volumes fall. As they do so, they are becoming more commercial and more international and their services are changing in frequency and timing.
 
Third party brokers continue to grow in serving the C2X segment, in particular in European markets, where there are often several alternative carriers.
 
B2B parcel volumes are growing at slower rates than GDP in most markets as a result of several widespread such as improved equipment reliability and flatter supply chains.

 

European parcels market map
 
The market leaders are the national postal operators of Germany, France and the UK including their respective parcels networks: DHL, DPD and GLS, and the integrators, with FedEx overtaking UPS following the addition of TNT’s operations. These five now account for around two thirds of the market and all are present in each of the top eight markets we profile in depth in this report.
 
However, there are still some significant independent groups such as Hermes – which is the largest – and the members of the road transport network alliances such as Eurodis and Net Express.
The large groups have continued to grow via add-on acquisitions in recent years.
 
The main organic change in share has come from Amazon, which has continued to increase the scope of its delivery operations with local delivery capabilities established in the UK, Italy, Germany, France, Spain and Austria.
– It now openly offers its services as an end-to-end carrier to third party shippers, focusing on medium sized B2C shipper with 20+ parcels per day
– It is building European road and air networks to support its cross-border delivery capability

Outlook

 
We expect further market growth after 2021, although the rate of growth is likely to vary significantly between countries with the B2B / B2C mix being an important factor.
 
In those countries where online retail expanded significantly during COVID-19 lockdown, this may have represented a shifting forward of the next few years of growth, meaning there is less growth to come over the rest of the forecast period – hence overall market growth will be slower from 2021-25.
 
Another key factor is the speed with which economies recover from the pandemic-induced downturn. Initial expectations were for an immediate GDP bounceback, but more recent forecasts suggest only a partial recovery in 2021 and that 2019 GDP levels will not be reached again until 2022 across Europe as a whole with some countries, and not until 2023 in some countries such as Spain the UK.
 
The main risks to the forecast relate to the two factors mentioned above:
– It is possible that, as the full data on 2021 retail emerges, the re-opening of the high street may have seen much of the growth in online retail seen in 2020 flow back to physical stores, leading to a stagnation or even fall in the B2C segment in 2021.
– GDP recovery could be slower than currently forecast if becomes clear that the pandemic shutdowns have caused lasting economic damage for example with widespread company closures and a spike in unemployment. This would be likely to lead to a slower recovery, potentially along the lines of that seen post-2009.
 
We also note that there is potential upside to the forecast if the 2020 shift to online retail turns out to have become a tipping point where a large proportion of shoppers change their buying habits permanently away from the high street towards online, and physical retail enters terminal decline, other than in selected niches. The data which will determine whether this is the case or not is starting to emerge but is far from complete.
 

What does the report cover?

European Parcels: Market Insight Report 2021 sets out the market structure, size, growth, key trends and competitive landscape, covering eight main countries in depth: Germany, UK, France, Spain, Italy, Netherlands, Belgium and Poland. These markets represent approximately 75% of European GDP and, according to our market model, over 80% of total parcels revenues.
 

The other countries included in our continent-wide overview and market size estimates are Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, Austria, Denmark, Greece, Finland, Portugal, Ireland, Czech Republic, Romania, Hungary, Slovak Republic, Croatia, Bulgaria, Slovenia, Serbia, Lithuania, Latvia, Luxembourg, Estonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Iceland, Albania, FYR Macedonia, Malta and Montenegro. Russia and Turkey are excluded.
 

Our definition of the parcels market includes domestic, intra-European and international parcels. It also includes business-to-business, business-to- consumer and consumer consigned parcels.
– Parcel weight definitions vary, between operators and countries, but most describe parcels up to various weights approaching 40 kg.
– All service levels are included (time definite and deferred).
– Adjacent services, such as mail, pallet distribution, groupage, freight forwarding, same day delivery fulfilment and contract logistics are excluded.
 

The report provides historical and forecast market sizes covering the period from 2015-2025 .
– Market sizes are presented in value and volume terms.
– Market values are presented on a constant currency basis.
– The market is segmented by country and, within each country and at the overall European level, between B2B, B2C and C2X.
 

The report includes in-depth profiles of the European operations of the following groups:
– DP DHL
– UPS
– FedEx (including TNT)
– Royal Mail Group
– Le Groupe La Poste / DPD
– Hermes
– Poste Italiane
– Amazon Logistics
The report draws on:
– Apex Insight’s work on the parcels markets in several key countries and regions
– Our consulting work in the industry which has included advising on market and strategic issues and the attractiveness of parcel company acquisitions
 

Clients purchasing it are entitled to have an expert call with our analysts to discuss its findings and any questions that they may have on it or the market in general.
 

What are the sources and methodology?

The main sources for the report are
– Extensive desk research on the global parcel delivery market and its operators covering company accounts, websites and other sources
– Published information on key market drivers such as economic data and estimates of online retail levels and practices
– Interviews with senior-level contacts in the market
 

The key input to our market size estimates is a bottom-up analysis of the revenues of the parcel companies we have identified as operating in each of the main countries covered.
 

Adjustments have been made to compensate for missing data and to reflect the extent to which these companies are involved in other logistics activities in addition to parcels.
 

We have used this data as the basis on which to construct our market model.
– The model produces historical and forecast growth estimates covering the period from 2014-2024 which are based on trends in company revenue and drivers such as economic performance and levels and patterns of home shopping.
– The main model inputs and assumptions are discussed in detail in the report.
 

Who is it useful for?

The report is intended for:
– Owners and operators of parcel networks
– Customers of those networks, in particular, retailers who sell via the internet
– Investors in these businesses
– Market regulators and policymakers
– Banks, analysts, consultants and other parties with interests in the sector

 

 

 

About this report 2
Summary  
About Apex Insight  
Contents  
European Parcels Market Background 21
Market definition  
Characteristics of the market  
Business vs. consumer delivery  
Other segmentations of the market  
Premium / economy  
International / domestic  
The Impact of COVID-19  
The Impact of COVID-19 on GDP  
The Impact of COVID-19 on parcel carrier revenue and volume  
Royal Mail  
GLS  
DPDHL  
DPDHL Parcel Germany  
Poste Italiane  
La Poste  
Market Trends 31
1. Changes in retail patterns  
Increase in direct sales by brands  
Emergence and growth of subscription box business model  
2. Improvement in carrier systems supporting improved customer service  
3. Development of better last mile delivery solutions  
Self-employed couriers  
Parcel shops and locker networks  
Delivery to the workplace  
Home lockers and in-boot deliveries  
Urban depots – local and mobile  
4. Increasing use of new delivery vehicle types  
Cargo bikes  
Electric vans  
Delivery drones and robots  
5. Leading retailers playing a more active role in delivery  
Amazon  
Alibaba  
Other retailers  
Click & Collect  
6. Increased use of technology in carrier operations  
Hub and depot automation  
Robotics  
PoD improvements  
Blockchain  
7. Variations in, or alternatives to, hub and spoke models  
8. Cross-border B2C deliveries  
9. Same day delivery  
10. Evolving role of postal operators  
11. Increased role of brokers to serve the C2X segment  
12. Supply chain trends leading to slower growth of B2B parcels  
Market Size and Growth 54
Parcels market value  
Volume  
GDP Growth  
Impact of internet retail market growth on parcels markets  
Pricing  
Competitive Landscape 61
Types of parcels carriers  
Postal operators  
Integrators  
European networks  
Independents  
Market shares  
Acquisitions  
FedEx  
UPS  
Royal Mail  
Deutsche Post DHL  
Le Groupe La Poste / GeoPost  
Profiles of Leading Groups 73
DPDHL  
Recent developments  
UPS (Europe)  
Recent developments  
FedEx  
Recent developments  
Royal Mail Group  
Le Groupe La Poste / DPD  
Parcels (within Services-Mail-Parcels)  
GeoPost  
Recent developments  
Hermes  
Recent developments  
Poste Italiane  
Amazon Logistics  
Network of facilities  
Development of core delivery operations  
Amazon’s delivery model  
Additional services  
Shipping with Amazon  
Implications for other carriers  
Other European networks  
Eurodis  
Net Express Europe  
GO! (General Overnight)  
Forecasts 104
Economic growth forecasts  
Internet retail forecasts  
Parcels market forecasts  
Growth by country  
Growth by segment  
Key messages for parcels networks  
Risks to the forecasts  
Germany 115
Market size and growth  
Parcels market size  
GDP growth  
Internet retail sales and growth  
Internet retail as a percentage of overall retail  
Germany – Competitor Analysis  
Leading parcel delivery companies by revenue  
Deutsche Post DHL  
UPS Germany  
DPD  
GLS Germany  
FedEx / TNT  
United Kingdom 123
Market size and growth  
Parcels market size  
GDP growth  
Internet retail sales and growth  
Internet retail as a percentage of overall retail  
UK – Competitor Analysis  
Leading parcel delivery companies by revenue  
Royal Mail  
DHL Express  
DHL Parcel UK (UK Mail)  
DPD  
DPD Local  
UPS  
FedEx  
TNT Express (FedEx)  
Yodel  
Hermes  
DX Group  
Tuffnells  
APC Overnight  
Amazon Logistics  
France 140
Market size and growth  
Parcels market size  
GDP growth  
Internet retail sales and growth  
Internet retail as a percentage of overall retail  
France – Competitor Analysis  
Leading parcel delivery companies by revenue  
La Poste  
Geodis (SNCF Logistics)  
FedEx France  
UPS France  
DHL France  
GLS France  
Ciblex  
Colis Privé  
Mondial Relay  
Italy 148
Market size and growth  
Parcels market size  
GDP growth  
Internet retail sales and growth  
Internet retail as a percentage of overall retail  
Italy – Competitor Analysis  
Leading parcel delivery companies by revenue  
BRT SpA  
DHL Italy  
UPS Italy  
Poste Italiane  
GLS Italy  
FedEx Italy  
Spain 155
Market size and growth  
Parcels market size  
GDP growth  
Internet retail sales and growth  
Internet retail as a percentage of overall retail  
Spain – Competitor Analysis  
Leading parcel delivery companies by revenue  
Correos / Correos Express  
DHL Spain  
SEUR Geopost  
Amazon Spain Fulfilment  
MRW  
UPS España  
Nacex  
FedEx  
GLS Spain  
Tourline  
Envialia  
Netherlands 165
Market size and growth  
Parcels market size  
GDP growth  
Internet retail sales and growth  
Internet retail as a percentage of overall retail  
Netherlands – Competitor Analysis  
Leading parcel delivery companies by revenue  
PostNL  
DHL Parcel Netherlands  
UPS Netherlands  
FedEx Netherlands  
DPD Netherlands  
GLS Netherlands  
Belgium 171
Market size and growth  
Parcels market size  
GDP growth  
Internet retail sales and growth  
Internet retail as a percentage of GDP  
Belgium – Competitor Analysis  
Leading parcel delivery companies by revenue  
bpost  
UPS Belgium  
FedEx Belgium  
DPD Belgium  
DHL Belgium  
GLS Belgium  
Poland 177
Market size and growth  
Parcels market size  
GDP growth  
Internet retail sales and growth  
Poland – Competitor Analysis  
Leading parcel delivery companies by revenue  
DPD Polska Sp. z.o.o.  
InPost  
DHL Express (Poland) Sp z.o.o  
UPS Polska Sp z.o.o  
Poczta Polska S.A.  
FedEx  
General Logistics Systems Poland Sp z.o.o  
Appendix 183
Notes to be read in conjunction with this report  
   
   
   
List of charts and tables  
   
European parcels market value by segment (B2B, B2C, C2X), 2018-20  
DPDHL Parcel Germany quarterly parcel volume, revenue & revenue per parcel  
Amazon locker in a station in France  
Leading carrier shares by country (illustrative)  
European GDP growth 2016-2026  
Royal Mail quarterly parcel volume, revenue & revenue per parcel  
GLS quarterly parcel volume, revenue & revenue per parcel  
DHL Express quarterly revenue, €m, Q1 2019-Q2 2021  
DPDHL Parcel Germany quarterly parcel volume, revenue & revenue per parcel  
Poste Italiane quarterly parcel volume, revenue & revenue per parcel  
Le Groupe La Poste Service-Mail-Parcels (Parcels Only) Revenue, 6 monthly periods, €m, Q2 2019-Q1 2021  
GeoPost revenue, 6 monthly periods, €m, Q2 2019-Q1 2021  
Hermes parcel shop in the UK  
Parcel shop and locker locations in main European countries, 2020  
Hermes testing in-boot deliveries with VW  
DPD ‘Green Last Mile’ initiative: using double decker bus as depot  
Zedify cargo bike  
DPD EAV P1 cargo bike  
Yodel cargo bike in Oxford  
Geek+ robots used in a distribution centre  
Amazon robots deployed in a fulfilment centre  
Soly robot at DPD Paris  
European parcels market value and growth by country €m, 2015-20  
European parcels market value and growth by country €m, 2015-20  
European parcels market value and growth by segment (B2B, B2C, C2X) €bn, 2015-20  
European parcels market value and growth by segment (B2B, B2C, C2X) €bn, 2015-20 (table)  
European parcels market volume by country, 2020 / m parcels  
European GDP Growth, 2016-21 %  
GDP growth by country, CAGR 16-21 %  
GDP Growth 2020 & 21(f)  
Internet retail spend by main European country, 2015-2020 / €bn  
Internet retail spend by main European country, 2015-2020 / €bn  
Internet retail as a share of overall retail sales 2015-20 / %  
Historical market shares of leading carrier groups  
2020 market shares of leading carriers by country  
Revenues of Leading Carriers by European Country, 2020  
Revenue from outside largest market / €m, %  
FedEx Inc. European acquisitions 2006-2020  
UPS Inc. European acquisitions 2008-2019  
Royal Mail European acquisitions 2015-18  
Deutsche Post DHL acquisitions 2004-2016  
Le Groupe La Poste acquisitions 2004-2020  
Deutsche Post DHL European parcels revenue, 2019-2020  
Deutsche Post DHL European Parcels & DHL Express Europe Revenue, 2010-2019  
Deutsche Post DHL European parcels revenue by division (new reporting structure), 2019-2020  
UPS European operations by country, 2021  
History of UPS’ European expansion  
FedEx Express European operations, 2021  
Royal Mail revenues by operating segment, 2012-2021 / £m  
GLS financial performance, 2011-2021  
Royal Mail parcel volumes, UKPIL, GLS and Parcelforce, 2012-2021  
Royal Mail / GLS parcel revenues by selected major European countries, 2012-20 (€m)  
GLS European operational statistics, 2021  
Recent developments  
Le Groupe La Poste Group financials, 2013-2020 / €m  
Le Groupe La Poste financial performance (Services-Mail-Parcels & GeoPost), 2014-2020 / €m  
Parcel volumes of GeoPost & Colissimo, 2013-2020 / Vol m  
La Poste parcel volumes (m), GeoPost / Services-Mail-Parcels , 2014-2020  
Le Groupe La Poste operating statistics, 2016-2020  
GeoPost revenue by country, 2018-2020  
Hermes Europe revenues, employees and consignments, 2011-20  
Poste Italiane parcel revenue and volume by segment (B2B, B2C, Other), 2016-20  
Amazon fulfilment centre in Peterborough, UK  
Amazon’s logistics facilities worldwide, 2020  
Eurodis network member operational statistics, 2019  
European GDP growth: 2015-25 / annual % change  
GDP Growth by country, 19-21 & 20-21  
Internet retail spend forecast by country €bn, 2015-25  
Internet retail as a share of overall retail sales 2015-2025 / %  
Forecast European parcels market by country €bn, 2015-2025  
Forecast European parcels market by segment €bn, 2014-2024  
Forecast European parcels market by country by segment / €m, 2015-2025  
Germany parcels market size and growth by segment, €m, 2015-2025  
Germany GDP growth: 2016-26 / annual % change  
Germany internet retail sales and growth, 2015-25 €bn  
Internet retail as % of overall retail: Germany vs. European average 2015-2025  
Germany parcels revenue by carrier, 2020 €m  
DPD Germany revenue, 2016-20  
GLS Germany revenue, 2012-20  
FedEx Germany revenue, 2012-2020  
UK parcels market size and growth by segment, €m, 2015-2025  
United Kingdom GDP growth: 2016-26 / annual % change  
UK internet retail sales and growth, 2015-25 €bn  
Internet retail as % of overall retail: UK vs. European average 2015-25  
UK parcels revenue by carrier (grouped), 2020 / €m  
UK parcels revenue by carrier (individual), 2016-2020 / €m  
Royal Mail UK parcel volume (inc. Parcelforce), 2011-2021 / m  
Royal Mail UK parcel revenue & revenue per parcel, 2012-21 / £m  
DHL Parcel UK (UK Mail) revenues, 2010-2020 / £m  
DPDgroup revenue, 2010-2020 / £m  
DPD Local turnover, 2010-2020 / £m  
UPS turnover, 2010-2020 / £m  
FedEx turnover (combined), 2010-2020 / £m  
TNT Express turnover, 2010-2020 £m  
Yodel turnover, 2010-2020 / £m  
Hermes financials, 2010-2020 £m  
Tuffnells financials, 2010-2020 £m  
APC Overnight financials, 2010-2020 £m  
Amazon Logistics notional revenue, 2013-20 £m  
France parcels market size and growth by segment, €m, 2015-2025  
France GDP growth: 2016-26 / annual % change  
France internet retail sales and growth, 2015-25 €bn  
Internet retail as % of overall retail: France vs. European average  2015-25  
France parcels market competitor analysis €m, 2020  
France parcels market competitor analysis €m, 2015-2020  
La Poste parcel revenues (France), 2013-2020 / €m  
UPS France revenue, 2010-2020 €m  
DHL France revenue, 2010-2020 €m  
GLS France revenue, 2011-2020 / €m  
Ciblex revenue, 2011-2020 / €m  
Colis Privé revenue, 2010-2020 / €m  
Italy parcels market size and growth by segment, €m, 2015-2025  
Italy GDP growth: 2016-26 / annual % change  
Italy internet retail sales and growth, 2015-25 €bn  
Internet retail as % of overall retail: Italy vs. European average 2015-25  
Italy parcels market competitor analysis 2019 / €m  
BRT s.p.a. revenue, 2011-20 / €m  
DHL Express Italy revenue, 2010-20 / €m  
UPS Italy revenue, 2011-19 / €m  
Poste Italiane parcel revenues (B2B, B2C, Other), 2016-20  
Poste Italiane parcel volumes (B2B, B2C, Other), 2016-20  
GLS Italy revenue, 2011-20 / €m  
TNT Express Italy revenue, 2010-20 / €m  
Spain parcels market size and growth by segment, €m, 2015-2025  
Spain GDP growth: 2016-26 / annual % change  
Spain internet retail sales and growth, 2015-25 €bn  
Internet retail as % of overall retail: Spain vs. European average  2015-25  
Spain parcels market competitor analysis €m, 2019  
Spain parcels market competitor analysis – parcel revenues €m, 2015-19  
Correos + Correos Express parcels revenue, 2016-19 / €m  
DHL Spain revenue, 2012-19 €m  
SEUR Spain revenues, 2014-20 €m  
TIPSA (acquired by SEUR)  
UPS España financials, 2010-20 / €m  
FedEx Spain financials, 2011-19 / €m  
GLS Spain financials, 2010-18 €m  
Netherlands parcels market size and growth by segment, €m, 2015-2025  
Netherlands GDP growth: 2016-26 / annual % change  
Netherlands internet retail sales and growth, 2015-25 €bn  
Internet retail as % of overall retail: Netherlands vs. European average 2015-25  
Netherlands parcels market competitor analysis €m, 2020  
PostNL parcel volume, 2010-2020 / m  
UPS Netherlands financials, 2010-20 €m  
DPD Netherlands financials, 2010-20, €m  
Belgium parcels market size and growth by segment, €m, 2015-2025  
Belgium GDP growth: 2016-26 / annual % change  
Belgium internet retail sales and growth, 2015-25 €bn  
Belgium parcels market competitor analysis €m, 2018  
Belgium parcels market competitor analysis €m, 2018  
bpost Parcel Revenues, Domestic & International, 2012-2018  
bpost Parcel Revenues, Domestic & International, 2012-2018  
Poland parcels market size and growth by segment, €m, 2015-2025  
Poland GDP growth: 2016-26 / annual % change  
Poland internet retail sales and growth, 2015-25 €bn  
Poland parcels market competitor analysis €m, 2019  
DPD Polska financials, 2013-20 €m  
InPost financial and operational performance, 2017-20  
DHL Express (Poland) financials, 2010-19 €m  
UPS Polska financials, 2010-19 €m  
General Logistics Systems Poland financials, 2010-2019 / €m  


    To talk to us directly about the report, or to ask a specific question, please telephone: +44 20 7100 7239


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